Recap: Legislative Lunch Forecast and Policy Takeaways
Source: Chris Berleth Columbia Montour Chamber of Commerce CEO/President
Who wins in November will help determine what moves in Harrisburg, what stalls in Washington, and what employers can expect as they hire, invest, and plan for the year ahead.
The Columbia Montour Chamber of Commerce’s October 13 legislative luncheon connected those political questions to local business priorities. Guest speakers Alan Novak and T.J. Rooney, known affectionately as “Pennsylvania’s Political Odd Couple,” brought decades of experience in Pennsylvania politics, a refreshing candor, and remarkably similar forecasts to a conversation about what comes after the election.
Novak, a former chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, has advised governors and presidential campaigns. Rooney, a former chairman of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, served seven terms in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives. The two co-founded the bipartisan Rooney Novak Isenhour Group and received Allegheny College’s Prize for Civility in Public Life in Pennsylvania in 2017.
The Chamber convened the discussion to help members understand the political outlook and identify opportunities to advance shared business priorities. The questions went beyond predicting winners: What would a change in party control mean for policy and its impact on business? Where would compromise still be necessary? How could employers help shape those decisions?
The Pennsylvania outlook and local business impact
“It’s not about a blue wave, it’s about a red undertow,” Novak said, describing dissatisfaction with affordability and President Trump’s influence as headwinds for Republican candidates in the lead-up to the November 3 midterm election.
Citing the Cook Political Report’s race ratings, both speakers described movement toward Democrats across a range of competitive races. Both predicted a substantial reelection victory for Governor Josh Shapiro and viewed a Democratic takeover of the Pennsylvania Senate as possible, potentially ending more than three decades of Republican control.
That broader forecast did not apply equally to every district. According to Rooney, “This race isn’t about really exciting Democrat candidates. No, in fact, there’s not a lot to get excited about here. This is about President Trump and the economy dragging down Republicans.” Both speakers specifically projected Congressman Dan Meuser to win decisively, illustrating how local Republican strength can persist alongside a wider shift toward Democrats.
Novak’s discussion of purchasing power helped explain the affordability concerns behind that forecast. Higher wages do not necessarily mean families are getting ahead when essential costs continue to rise. Employers experience that pressure through their own operating expenses and the need to offer wages that help employees keep up.
For businesses here, the statewide outcome could have consequences regardless of who wins locally. As Rooney put it, “Divided government is a good thing. Divided government breeds compromise.” Continued divided government would require agreement across party lines. While Democratic control of the governor’s office and both legislative chambers would give the party greater ability to advance its priorities, Rooney acknowledged that it would also bring challenges within the party, including navigating the role and influence of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) on the overall agenda.
Should Democrats gain control of the governor’s office and both legislative chambers, transportation funding is likely to emerge as a major Democratic priority in the next budget. For our region, the stakes include whether a statewide agreement addresses rural transportation needs and helps people get to work.
Beyond the issues discussed at the luncheon, the broader policy stakes include several areas where the Democratic-controlled House and Republican-controlled Senate have differed in recent years: increasing the minimum wage, expanding prevailing wage requirements, state spending and uses of the Rainy Day Fund, business and corporate taxes including combined reporting, energy, recreational marijuana, and the future of Pennsylvania’s Educational Improvement Tax Credit program, or EITC.
Childcare illustrates how the parties can recognize the same workforce challenge while approaching solutions differently. Republicans have emphasized regulatory reform, while Democrats have emphasized subsidies and support for the childcare workforce, including supplemental funding for teachers. Those differences matter to providers trying to sustain their operations and employers whose workers depend on reliable care.
During the luncheon, we discussed the Danville Child Development Center’s experience with playground inspection requirements and the expense of addressing them. The example brought the regulatory discussion close to home: an unexpected cost for a childcare provider has implications for a service working families depend on. It also demonstrated why lawmakers need to hear specific examples from the organizations affected by their decisions.
Potential changes to EITC carry similarly broad local implications. The program supports student programming through the Community Giving Foundation, For the Cause Teen Center, Bloomsburg Children’s Museum, the Chamber Foundation, Danville Child Development Center, and many others. Major changes could significantly affect educational opportunities for students throughout our region.
The federal outlook
The federal discussion pointed toward greater conflict and legislative gridlock if Democrats win control of the U.S. House. The speakers discussed the prospect of investigations and possible impeachment proceedings, with fewer opportunities for agreement on major legislation. That outlook differed from the possibility in Harrisburg, where unified Democratic control would significantly alter the way that state government has functioned in recent years.
Voting and staying engaged
The luncheon reinforced why participation matters. Start by voting. Consider how candidates’ priorities would affect your employees, your business, and the communities you serve. Encourage your employees to make their voices heard, too.
Then stay engaged. If a regulation, transportation gap, or childcare challenge is affecting your business, tell the Chamber what happened, what it cost, and what change would help. Rooney and Novak emphasized that specific examples give elected officials something concrete to address.
Whoever holds the majority next year, the Chamber’s responsibility remains the same: make sure the needs of Columbia and Montour County businesses are understood. We will continue bringing people together for thoughtful conversations across political differences, building relationships with elected officials from both parties, and advocating for policies that help our businesses and communities thrive.
Special thanks
Special thanks are due to PPL Electric Utilities, the luncheon’s premier sponsor, and Commonwealth University for hosting. PPL Regional Affairs Director Jonah Howe generously offered the company’s time at the podium to partner nonprofit Bloomsburg Children’s Museum. Board president Taryn Crayton shared exciting news: the timeline for the Museum’s planned NASA-sanctioned Challenger Learning Center has been significantly accelerated, bringing new opportunities for hands-on STEM education closer to reality for students throughout our region.
We’re grateful to our speakers, partners, and everyone who joined us for a candid conversation about the decisions ahead. From helping employers navigate public policy to investing in opportunities for our next generation, their involvement reflects a shared commitment to this region’s future. That gives us plenty of reason for optimism and plenty of good work to do together.
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The Columbia Montour Chamber of Commerce represents local employers in supporting vibrant, sustainable communities in Columbia and Montour Counties. For more information about the region’s top businesses, visit www.columbiamontourchamber.com.
