5 Key Consumer Insights to Turn Customer Engagement Into Sales on Small Business Saturday and During the Holiday Season

Holiday shoppers are hard to predict this year. We’ve culled top takeaways from business analysts who’ve been studying consumer behavior to help plan your strategy for Small Business Saturday and beyond.

Holiday shoppers are sending a lot of mixed messages in 2026.

They’re worried about prices but still willing to splurge on the right item. They say they prefer to shop in stores but are spending a lot of time and money online, and they’re using AI agents to write their shopping lists.

They are doing some parts of their holiday shopping earlier than ever and saying they will wait until the last minute for other items.

The contradictions are enough to drive a small business owner crazy. Don’t worry—dozens of research firms, data scientists, and business analysts have been studying American consumers since the summer and have published their insights in time for the holiday season. Here are five top takeaways you can leverage as you plan your Small Business Saturday and holiday strategies:

Targeting price-conscious consumers—who are also planning to spend more this holiday season than last year

The consensus of the holiday spending forecasts for 2026 is that total spending in November and December will be up again this year, but that doesn’t necessarily mean everyone is getting more gifts. Inflation and higher prices are expected to drive up the total dollars spent, and consumers are saying they will be carefully watching their spending.

Accounting and consulting firm Deloitte is forecasting total holiday retail sales from November 1 through the end of January will rise between 4% and 4.8%, about the same growth rate as last year.

Deloitte expects the growth rate for online sales to be even more robust, up 7.5% to 8.4%.

A survey of holiday shoppers conducted for advisory and consulting firm Accenture found that U.S. consumers plan to increase their holiday budgets by a healthy 12% this year.

More than half, 53%, say they have to spend more this year due to higher costs.

Key insight: With consumers worried about prices and budgets, businesses need to be mindful that shoppers want to get the most out of every dollar.

“Consumers continue to place importance on making the holidays special for their friends and families, while also making deliberate choices about how they spend,” said Natalie Martini, Vice Chair and U.S. Retail and Consumer Products Leader at Deloitte. “As they look to get more out of their dollars, we continue to see value-seeking behaviors across income levels, including switching among brands and retailers and using promotions to manage spending.”

‘Valuemaxxing’ is the holiday 2026 buzzword, with shoppers now searching for items that blend practicality and personal significance

Online shopping platform Shopify used the term “valuemaxxing” to describe the mindset of today’s consumer in its 2026 Global Holiday Retail Report.

Valuemaxxing consumers are researching more, taking time to find products that are highly specific to their needs, and are willing to pay more for the best possible option.

Shopify’s survey found 80% of consumers feel more in control when they do research before buying, and 50% define “good” value as getting higher-than-expected quality for the price paid.

The value definition extends beyond price for this year’s consumers, research firm Circana reported in its U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions study.

Value includes finding the perfect gift for someone, something that matches their interests or promotes their well-being, according to Circana.

Shoppers this year are gravitating toward items that blend practicality and personal significance, Circana reported, such as personalized gifts, collectibles, wellness products, experiences, and other gifts that promote connection and self-expression.

Key insight: Small businesses that understand this new definition of value will be more successful in connecting shoppers with the products they are want to buy.

“Consumers are redefining what makes a gift valuable,” said Kiara Barrett, Head of Global Thought Leadership, Circana.

“The winners this holiday season will be brands that help shoppers express care, connection, identity, and purpose—products with emotional relevance have the greatest opportunity to stand out.”

The holiday calendar is changing, with ‘Decision Season’ as the new holiday kickoff

Consumers are researching, and planning, holiday purchases a month or more in advance of Thanksgiving Day, the traditional kickoff of the peak holiday shopping period, according to multiple surveys.

Research from marketing intelligence platform InMarket shows consumers are making specific plans about holiday spending and gift giving long before they head to the stores, in some cases as early as September. Shoppers, InMarket reports, are comparing prices longer and harder than in past years.

Data from marketing platform Attentive shows that 83% of consumers begin planning holiday purchases before Black Friday.

InMarket is calling the early planning the “Decision Season” and says it can make or break a business that depends on holiday sales.

Giftster, a digital gift wish list, has also spotted this trend, but it calls the phenomenon the “Planning Economy.” Its Holiday Shopping Index shows consumers create gift lists in October, finalize gift decisions just before Black Friday, and make most of their purchases in December. But by December, most shoppers have decided exactly what they’re going to buy.

Key insight: Spread out marketing messages and customer engagement efforts over a longer period, rather than concentrating them around the peak holiday shopping days.

“Brands are used to treating Black Friday as the starting line for holiday marketing. This year, it will be the continuation of months of customer engagement,” said Jema Birkmeyer, Vice President, Strategic Sales for Attentive. “Consumers are discovering products, comparing options, and deciding which brands they trust long before the holiday rush.”

Stores remain popular holiday destinations, even as AI-assisted shopping increases

This year’s survey conducted by ICSC, the trade organization for malls, shopping centers, and other marketplaces, found that while the use of AI shopping tools is increasing rapidly, almost all holiday shoppers plan to spend significant time in stores.

According to the ICSC, 61% of holiday shoppers plan to use AI tools this year—up sharply from last year’s 47%. But a far larger number, 93% of all consumers, expect to visit a physical store for holiday purchases. That percentage is even higher for younger consumers, with 97% of Gen Z shoppers saying they will be shopping in stores.

Accenture’s holiday survey found that 44% of shoppers said they visit stores to see, touch, or try products before purchasing.

Stores also out-ranked AI tools as the favorite place for advice and recommendations, with 19% saying they prefer to get recommendations from stores, compared to 13% from AI.

Key insight: Lean into the power of your store or local business as a trusted source of recommendations.

“Even in an increasingly digital and AI-powered shopping environment, consumers still value the ability to see, touch, and compare products before they buy,” said Kathryn Gramling, Accenture’s Global Consumer Goods, Retail, and Travel Lead. “Retailers that help shoppers make informed decisions and feel certain about their purchases will be best positioned to win holiday spending.”

Holiday gift lists are changing, and businesses need to be aware of new sales opportunities

Holiday shoppers will be browsing on Small Business Saturday and during the holiday season with a distinctly different gift list this year, consumer surveys show.

They may have removed some people from their gift list in order to save money. They may have decided to give an experience, rather than a traditional gift. And many of them will be shopping for themselves.

A survey by discounts and coupons platform RetailMeNot found that consumers plan to spend 44% more on purchases for themselves during the holiday season, while spending 3.6% less on gifts for others.

Shoppers told PayPal that a big reason they are shopping for themselves is to take advantage of holiday sales and to stock up on household essentials.

Gen Z shoppers are the most likely to buy for themselves, with 49% planning to self-gift, according to Deloitte’s Holiday Retail Survey.

Deloitte’s survey also shows that half of all consumers plan to give an experience this year.

Several surveys reported shoppers are trimming their gift lists, rather than spending less on the same number of people.

Research by commercial real estate and investment management company JLL shows the percentage of shoppers planning to buy for fewer people will rise to 28.9%, up from 24.9%. That is a trend that should concern businesses, JLL said in its report, because a name dropped from a holiday gift list “is a lost sale, not a smaller one.”

Key insight: Understand your customers’ shopping goals and try to meet them, and offer ways for shoppers to maximize their gift-giving.

“Make it easy to cover more people without spending more, with bundles, clear $25 and $50 price points, and gift cards up front,” said James D. Cook, Heli Breacilo, and Keisha Virtue, the authors of the JLL Holiday Shopping Survey 2026. “The goal is keeping the list long rather than raising the ticket.”

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