From North Branch Group/Thrivent Financial Mark Simenstad, CFA Chief Investment Strategist, Thrivent Asset Management David Francis, CFA Vice President, Investment Equities, Thrivent Asset Management Darren Bagwell, CFA Chief Equity Strategist, Thrivent Asset Management Steve Lowe, CFA Head of Fixed-Income, Thrivent Asset Management In the past year, the S&P 500 has gone through two corrections of 10% or more from peak to trough. This roller coaster market has left the S&P 500 with a modest loss of approximately 1.3% for 2018 through Dec. 10 (The S&P 500 Index is a market-cap-weighted index that represents the average performance of a group of 500 large-capitalization stocks). And, like a roller coaster, it has left many investors with a great sense of unease, if not outright nausea. Although there are many reasons for broad stock market moves, the following factors are the most important issues that we believe have been driving this volatile market. We also lay out our current views on the prospects of the market: 1. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has been systematically raising short term interest rates and has discontinued its large bond buying program after a period of increasing money supply and low rates following the financial crisis. The result has been reduced liquidity throughout the capital markets. It has also led to meaningfully higher short-term bond yields, which now provides a more competitive return alternative to stocks. Our view is that this policy has been prudent thus far, and that the Fed may now be close to a level that they believe should be appropriate for an economic and inflationary environment that is approaching more normal levels. 2. Closely tied to Fed policy has been the relentless narrowing of the spread between long and shorter maturity bonds. This “flattening” of the yield curve, as short-term rates and long-terms rates begin to converge, has led to widespread concerns of outright “inversion”—a historical precursor to recession. Our view is that although the yield curve has, in fact, flattened at the very short end of the curve, we don’t believe this is a classic inversion, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates. In addition, although it is true that inversions often precede serious market and economic weakness, the length of time from the flattening/inversion of the yield curve and a bear market can vary greatly from one instance to another. 3. There are a multitude of disconcerting geopolitical events, particularly U.S.-China trade frictions and Brexit, which have injected a high degree of uncertainty and anxiety into the markets. Our view is that the outcome and ultimate impact of these developments are very hard to determine. Consequently, this uncertainty will continue to manifest itself in higher levels of volatility and more subdued market valuation (lower price-earnings ratios globally) (Price-earnings ratio refers to a stock valuation method in which the stock price of a company is divided by its annual earnings). 4. Corporate earnings have been exceptionally strong due to solid economic fundamentals and the recent corporate tax cuts. However, the market has been concerned that we have seen the peak in earnings, with revenue growth poised to decline as the economy moderates, as well as profit margins that may decline as employment and logistics costs escalate, and as the positive impact from lower tax rates fades. Our view is that although the positive impact from lower tax rates will fade, earnings will still be quite healthy by historical standards if operating margins prove resilient. Also, we see little evidence that the economy will downshift materially such that corporate revenues will stop growing. 5. The high and growing level of global debt and other liabilities, including pension and health benefit obligations, are beginning to weigh on longer term investor perceptions. Historically low interest rates have significantly mitigated the near-term cost of servicing these liabilities. Our view is that high debt levels are indeed an issue of concern, particularly if interest rates were to rise further. Partially offsetting this concern is the fact that consumer debt has not increased to excessive levels since the last recession, and thus should not be a contributing catalyst for potential problems. However, elevated corporate and government debt will weigh on global economies and markets as interest rates increase. As discussed above, there are many risks that will continue to weigh on market returns, with high and rising debt levels being the most problematic risk from a longer-term standpoint. Given the diminished level of liquidity in the market, volatility will remain high, and further equity market declines are certainly possible. However, we believe a healthy domestic economy, sustained relatively strong corporate earnings, low interest rates, and relatively moderate valuations may counteract the rising tide of late cycle risks. We continue to believe that long term returns will be muted as compared to the very strong returns over the past number of years. Finally, in periods such as this, it is important for investors to again assess their real risk temperament relative to the time frame of their investment objectives and to ensure that their overall portfolios remain properly balanced and diversified across asset classes. All information and representations herein are as of Dec. 10, 2018, unless otherwise noted. Past performance is no indication of future results. The views expressed are as of the date given, may change as market or other conditions change, and may differ from views expressed by other Thrivent Asset Management associates. Actual investment decisions made by Thrivent Asset Management will not necessarily reflect the views expressed. This information should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or product. Thrivent Asset Management, a registered investment advisor, is the asset manager for Thrivent Mutual Funds. Thrivent Distributors, LLC is the principal underwriter for Thrivent Mutual Funds. Thrivent Distributors, LLC is a registered broker-dealer and member of FINRA and SIPC. Extra Credit: Bitcoin mit Paysafe Karte kaufen
From PA Chamber of Business & Industry
Happy Holidays! With December now nearly over, the PA Chamber is geared up to start 2019 with an aggressive pro-growth agenda. As we work to ensure that the legislature is aware of our members’ major advocacy goals before lawmakers are sworn in on New Year’s Day, we’re taking stock of what we’ve achieved on behalf of our broad-based membership during the session that just wrapped up.
Among the strongest achievements was a legislative fix to a state Supreme Court case that is bringing clarity and cost-savings to employers within the workers’ compensation system; and a bonus depreciation bill that helped resolve a major competitiveness hurdle for employers. You can read about the highs and lows of the past two years in our comprehensive 2017-18 End of Session Report.
With an eye toward 2019, our legislative agenda for the New Year is heavy on tax reform. Armed with facts in the Tax Foundation’s recent report on the Commonwealth’s business climate, the PA Chamber is making the case to lawmakers this coming session that Pennsylvania needs to implement tax reforms that will mirror reforms at the federal level. Chief among these goals is the reduction of our state’s Corporate Net Income Tax, which at 9.99 percent is among the highest effective rates in the nation and presents one of the largest hurdles for attracting new investment and creating jobs.
In a recent op-ed in Lancaster Online, PA Chamber President Gene Barr emphasizes the need for this and other long-overdue tax reforms while reflecting on Amazon’s recent decision to bring 50,000 new jobs and $5 billion in new investment to two areas outside of Pennsylvania. While the Keystone State has a lot going for it in terms of cost of living, geography, vast resources and other key assets, our tax structure has consistently led companies to invest and grow elsewhere – and that’s a trend we’re committed to stop in its tracks.
The Chamber offers a big thank you to all of the individuals that attended this year’s Holiday Open House on Dec. 13, as well as the staff at the Pine Barn Inn, the event host, and the volunteers and Chamber staff that helped the event run smoothly. It is the continued support of these businesses, organizations and individuals that helps the Chamber fulfill its mission of offering programs, benefits and events to its members, giving them a stronger voice and advocacy and being involved in more activities and initiatives in our communities.
The success of this annual event depends on the continued attendance of members and guests and because they enjoy the Holiday Open House year after year, they keep coming back. This year saw record registration, so much in fact that the event sold out about a week prior. This can’t happen without the support of our members, so we give one last thank you to them and we look forward to next year’s event.
A special thank you also goes out to the staff at the Pine Barn. The sales, kitchen and hospitality staff routinely go above and beyond with their service and without their help (not to mention great-tasting food), this event wouldn’t be nearly as successful. Also, special thanks to them for once again donating a menu selection as an Angel Sponsor.
Finally, thanks to a couple of volunteers – Mary Ann Rizzo from the Columbia-Montour Visitors Bureau, who once again assisted at the registration table with the more than 400 name tags to give out, as well as our two guest bartenders: Mark Gardner of M&T Bank and Pamela Anderson of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Hodrick Realty. Their valuable time spent helping this event run smoothly as well as raise funds for the winning nonprofit organization (Foundation of the Columbia Montour Chamber) from the guest bartending competition, is greatly appreciated. Also, thanks to the Chamber and Chamber Foundation staff — Matt Beltz, Phyllis Jones, Deb Sokol and Jeff Emanuel — for their continued efforts in making sure this event is successful each year.
The Chamber extends a big thank you to the member organizations that donated a gift for the door prize drawing at the Holiday Open House. It is the continued support of these businesses, organizations and individuals that helps the Chamber fulfill its mission of offering programs, benefits and events to its members, giving them a stronger voice and advocacy and being involved in more activities and initiatives in our communities.
These eight organizations included included five members that were also Angel Sponsors, as well as our floral arrangement provider for the second straight year, Pretty Petals & Gifts by Susan.
The Nickle Plate Bar & Grill at Knoebels Three Ponds Golf Course
Pretty Petals & Gifts by Susan
Turkey Hill Brewing Co. & The Farmhouse at Turkey Hill
More than 400 businesses and organizations belong to the Chamber to receive benefits and support efforts to strengthen their businesses and our region. Increased membership allows us to offer additional programs and benefits, have a stronger voice in advocacy and be involved in more activities and initiatives in our communities. The Chamber welcomes its newest member, Fulton Mortgage Company, to help us fulfill our mission. To hire the best mortgage companny, see more information about Orange Mortgage and Finance Brokers
The Fulton Mortgage Company has offices in Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia, and provides a full range of products and services to the Fulton Financial Corporation’s family of banks, which in Pennsylvania are now all known as Fulton Bank (formerly FNB Bank and Swineford National Bank locally). For more information, see at their website. Fulton has banks in 18 counties in Pennsylvania, including both Columbia and Montour, and provides consumer and business customers with banking services and products, investment management and trust services. Locally, there are four Fulton Bank locations in Columbia and Montour counties: 37 West Main St., Bloomsburg; 1113 Bloom Rd., Danville; 630 Mill St., Danville; and 200 South Poplar St., Berwick. For more information, visit the company’s website.
The Chamber extends a big thank you to the record 13 Angel Sponsors of this year’s Holiday Open House. It is the continued support of these businesses, organizations and individuals that helps the Chamber fulfill its mission of offering programs, benefits and events to its members, giving them a stronger voice and advocacy and being involved in more activities and initiatives in our communities. Thank you again to our sponsors for their generosity and support of this event.
Angel Sponsors are Chamber members in the food, beverage or catering businesses that serve samples of their own products at the Holiday Open House. Angel Sponsors always add a nice element to the event with their tasty food and drink, and we hope that all of the attendees that had a chance to sample their offerings and liked them will patronize these businesses over the next year. For those that may have enjoyed a particular food sample but can’t remember what it was or which Angel Sponsor it might have been from, each sponsor’s menu from the Holiday Open House is also listed.
Special thanks also goes out to the six first-time Angel Sponsors (noted below), including four of which that joined the Chamber over the last 12 months since last year’s Holiday Open House. Also special thanks to the Pine Barn Inn, which annually provides one special dish as an Angel Sponsor in addition to the several other food items for this event.
ALTERA Life (first-time Angel Sponsor and 2018 new member)
Mini black bean sweet potato cakes with avocado lime cream, cucumber hummus sliders; meatless meatballs; oatmeal, chocolate chip and peanut butter cookies; cranberry bars
Cherokee Tap Room (first-time Angel Sponsor and 2018 new member)
Chipotle butternut squash soup
Columbia-Montour Vo-Tech Food Preparation & Service Program (first-time Angel Sponsor)
Puff pastry cups with spinach dip or roasted pepper cream; shrimp & pesto crostini; bruschetta; open-faced tea sandwiches featuring fruit chutney with ham & cheddar and cucumber with citrus herb aioli; chocolate bark; sweet rolls; ricotta cookies
Le Jeune Chef at Penn College (first-time Angel Sponsor)
Assorted mini dessert items
Lucy’s Kitchen & Catering
Famous mac & cheese and seasonal Christmas cookies
The Farmhouse & Brewing Co. at Turkey Hill
Pumpkin ravioli, buffalo chicken dip w/chips, beer samples
Nickle Plate Bar & Grill at Knoebels Three Ponds Golf Course
Pulled pork sliders and Steve’s homemade meatballs
Profile Coffee & Roasters (first-time Angel Sponsor and 2018 new member)
Coffee samples
Rock God Brewing (first-time Angel Sponsor and 2018 new member)
Beer on tap – the specific beers were Black Hole Sun and Cherry Pie Cream Ale
Steph’s Subs
Assorted cold sub platter
T.K. Witch
Pumpkin hummus and turmeric-tahini sauce w/dipping items
Wild For Salmon
Salmon wrap bites, Asian salmon salad wrap bites
The Chamber extends a big thank you to the major sponsors of this year’s Holiday Open House. We had a record number of sponsors this year, and it is the continued support of these businesses, organizations and individuals that helps the Chamber fulfill its mission of offering programs, benefits and events to its members, giving them a stronger voice and advocacy and being involved in more activities and initiatives in our communities. Thank you again to our sponsors for their generosity and support of this event.
Event Sponsor
Geisinger Bloomsburg Hospital
Holiday Cheer Sponsors
M&T Bank
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Hodrick Realty
Gold Star Sponsors
Service 1st Federal Credit Union
Century 21 Covered Bridges Realty
Red Reindeer Sponsors
BIDA
Green Tree Sponsors
ChamberChoice/Kinect Energy
Derr, Pursel, Luschas & Naparsteck, LLP
Lackawanna College (Sunbury Center)
From Penn State World Campus
Note: Employees of all Columbia Montour Chamber members, their spouses and dependents are eligible for a 5% discount on tuition through the PSU World Campus.
A new graduate-level certificate from Penn State can help managers and leaders improve their organizations through business architecture, a growing practice that bridges business strategy with tactical implementation.
Penn State is accepting applications for the nine-credit graduate certificate in business architecture, which is being offered online through Penn State World Campus and the internationally recognized Smeal College of Business. The courses also may be used as a stepping stone toward one of several master’s degrees online through Penn State.
“Business architecture is the bridge between high-level business strategy and tactical execution,” said Brian Cameron, faculty director for the certificate program and associate dean for professional graduate programs at Smeal. “The business architecture discipline is growing rapidly today and this graduate certificate addresses a need for more university-based education in this field. The interest so far has been great.”
Cameron said studies show many organizations do not successfully execute their business strategy because they do not have a clear picture of the state of the organization and how they can achieve their goals. Cameron said the practice of business architecture will reveal an organization’s actual structure and the changes necessary to carry out the strategic objectives to reach the goals.
The certificate was designed to help a wide range of professionals, such as business analysts who aspire to move into planning and execution or those working in information technology who want to move into a strategy role.
The curriculum consists of a course in strategic business architecture; a course that explores the emerging trends, technology and corporate innovation; and a course on the foundational concepts of enterprise modeling.
Students who complete the certificate may apply the credits toward one of three master’s degrees offered online by the World Campus: enterprise architecture and business transformation, the online MBA, and corporate innovation and entrepreneurship.
The Penn State certificate in business architecture is the first graduate-level program of its kind in the country. The University is offering it online so that business professionals who want to advance their career with this credential do not have to leave their jobs.
“This certificate provides individuals the opportunity to enhance their knowledge and earn a credential in an emerging area,” said Shubha Kashyap, director of academic affairs at Penn State World Campus. “As our students seamlessly transition between their roles as professionals and students, the immediate applicability of new skills to their careers can enrich their education and professional advancement.”
Visit the Penn State World Campus website for more information about the new certificate.
From PA Chamber of Business & Industry
Despite recent projections from the state’s Independent Fiscal Office that the Commonwealth faces an up to $1.7 billion deficit headed into 2019-20 budget discussions, the tone from the state’s outgoing Budget Secretary is one of optimism for Pennsylvania’s fiscal health.
At a mid-year budget report press event last week, Sec. Randy Albright pointed to months of higher than projected revenue collections, rising gaming revenue and no sharp spikes in required pension payments as a sign that Pennsylvania will “end the year with not just a balanced budget but a surplus,” adding that “we don’t think we face a $1.5 billion deficit for the proposed budget year.” He did admit, however, that the state might need supplemental appropriations to pay for health care entitlement spending that is the result of transitioning to its new managed care system, PA Health Choices. Albright also expressed that increasing human services costs, re-negotiating state labor contracts, decreasing reserves from the Pennsylvania High Education Assistance Agency and increasing State Police funding are all issues that could pose problems for an on-time budget deal.
According to a story in the PLS Reporter, Republican House Appropriations staffer John O’Brien, who works for House Appropriations Chairman Stan Saylor, R-York, agreed that the IFO’s estimate is extreme (though IFO Executive Director Matthew Knittel continues to stand by his numbers). O’Brien told the media outlet that the IFO’s projections are based on a 10 percent spending increase – which he said the General Assembly will not allow. He added that Albright’s positive picture is based on a growing economy with decreasing unemployment, which makes the case for fair and predictable tax policy choices in order to maintain economic momentum. Republican state legislative leaders have been stressing to reporters in the weeks leading up to swearing-in day that they are taking a hard stance against any new taxes in the new fiscal year.
Notably, Albright also announced during the event that he will be departing his post at the end of the month. The first member of Gov. Wolf’s Cabinet to announce that they won’t be returning to their post when the new term begins in January, Albright served all four years of Wolf’s first term. He will be replaced by Jen Swails, who has more than 19 years of fiscal and policy experience in state government. Her most recent role is that of fiscal management director for the new Shared Services Budget Office, which oversees budgets for the Depts. of Aging, Health, Human Services and Drug and Alcohol Programs.
Among the areas that experienced flash flooding this summer was a portion of South Centre Township, Columbia County, which impacted homes and several major employers. Among them, Chamber members SEKISUI SPI and J.M. Smucker were forced to shut down for days to deal with unprecedented flooding. Efforts are underway to reduce or eliminate the future risk to these businesses and residents.
Representatives from PennDOT, DEP, North Shore Railroad, the SEDA-COG Joint Rail Authority, Columbia County, and South Centre Township, as well as Chamber president Fred Gaffney, representative David Millard, and senator John Gordner recently met with the affected businesses to discuss the issues that may have contributed to the flooding. The Township has already worked with DEP to address a stream bed, which was believed to be a major contributor. Agency representatives pledged to review their areas of responsibility to ensure that drainage systems are working properly. Senator Gordner and representative Millard are working with DEP and the Township to pursue funding for a storm water management study for the area, which has not been done since the early 1970s. Such a study could identify other long-term solutions for dealing with runoff and drainage.
The businesses expressed their appreciation to the various entities helping to ensure that the hundreds of jobs and business investments will be safe from future risk of flooding.